Managing the Unexpected: Sustained Performance in a Complex World

"Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Forest Fires III" includes selected papers presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Forest Fires, held in May 2012. The Conference is the third in a series of biennial conferences organized by the Wessex Institute of Technology on the application of computer techniques to the difficult field of forest fire prevention, management, and mitigation. The latest conference was sponsored by the International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning and the International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering. Forest Fires are very complex phenomena which, under the right physical conditions, can rapidly devastate large areas. Approaches to controlling fires strongly depend on the physical characteristics of the surrounding region, so that those suitable for rural areas differ from those applicable in urban environments. Fire control approaches also vary depending on weather conditions, regional activities, and forest type, as well as social and economic factors. At present insufficient knowledge of the behavior of fires and how they propagate makes these phenomena very difficult to control and is one of the most important obstacles to the development of a reliable decision support system. Public concern regarding this topic is increasing as uncontrolled fires may lead to major ecological disasters, and usually result in negative economic and health implications for an entire region. Forest fire analysis and mitigation requires the development of computer codes that can take into consideration a large number of different parameters. Papers in this book discuss the latest research and applications of available tools to analyze and predict the spread of forest fires both to prevent or reduce major loss of life and property and to avoid damage to the environment.

A burning mix of diesel fuel and gasoline drips from handheld canisters onto the ground. Slowly a line of fire begins to creep downhill. The flames are well behaved, almost hesitant. This is a backing fire, unlikely to attract media attention unless it escapes, like the disastrous Los Alamos Cerro Grande fire did in 2000. This book explores a century of controversy over prescribed burning―using fire as a tool―and fire suppression. For more than 100 years, America waged an all-out war against wildland fire. Decades of fire suppression caused fuels to build up at alarming levels in our forests, culminating in the increasingly severe, uncontrollable fires of the late 20th century―the fires in Yellowstone, the Oakland Hills, and Los Alamos and the fires in summers of 2000 (the second worst fire season in the nation's history) and 2001.   Looking at these and earlier fires, Carle uses the voices of those who were involved, of those who were early advocates, and of today's proponents to examine the role of controlled burning. Early in the century, Harold Biswell, a pioneer in prescribed burning, dared to commit the heresy of questioning the dogma of fire suppression, despite professional controversy and opprobrium, he and a few other pioneers led the way. Their roles play an integral part in the story told here. In Biswell's words, fire is a natural part of the environment, about as important as rain and sunshine… . We must work more in harmony with nature, not so much against it. Can humanity, this book asks, learn to become a fire-adapted species?